Dec
16
Noah: the Rainbow Sign?
Filed Under B2B, Blog, Industry Analysis, internet, mobile content, online advertising, Publishing, Search, social media, Uncategorized | 1 Comment
“God gave Noah the rainbow sign – he said, there’s no more water, its the Fire next time”
Marco Rodzynek and his colleagues at Noah Advisors are to be congratulated. The 650 attendees at the Park Lane Hilton in London yesterday had a treat: an event just as good as last years’ inaugural, genuinely Pan-European, full of investment opportunities at a wide variety of levels and concentrated around the winning world of internet services, where at last Europeans are beginning to work at scale, and respond to the needs of some very specific European cultures. I cannot attempt to sum up 35 presentations, and a panel of 6 fascinating angel investors, but here are a few lines and figures that hit me hard:
- “global roaming is about to be a reality – this is the end of the Roaming Empires”
- “the future of broadcasting is event – driven – everything else goes downloadable or otherwise playable on demand”
- “local advertising will become almost wholly transactional”
- “online advertising cpm in Asia is now under £1.00 – here is a market that collapsed before it started”
- “WPP is not an advertising agency – we see ourselves as a data, analytics and marketing company” Mark Read
- “the entire music industry in all formats and delivery modes is now smaller than the Apps business”
- Apps will grow from $4.6 billion in 2009 to $20billion in 2015 (GetJar)
- The secret of ticketing is to get people to optimize opportunity – if they book and then decide not to go then they can sell back through us – SeatWave
- Conduit is the largest B2B Apps player – it creates and manages Apps for “publishers” of all types. Its a SaaS service with 200 million users, 260,000 client publishers and in 2009 was acquiring 1 million new users a day. Recently moved distribution from Google to Microsoft.
- Trovit is now a major player in web classified advertising, aggregating 80 million listings in homes, jobs, cars etc (Why did we ever do Fish4?) It has 35 million unique users per month and ebitda is now up to 3 m EUR.
- Ticketing is an area for hugely increased penetration in future. “Over 50% of the market is still conventional in approach – yet this is a simple business where you are just trading a barcode” SeatWave
- Wonga also points to microfinance as a growth industry. Its a £60 billion pa sector dominated by banks. Wonga do loans of £1 to £1000, cash in the borrowers bank account within 15 minutes of approval, repayment in 11 days. They reject 70% of applicants, so risk information systems are vital. They will flourish as long as they are cheaper than late overdraft fees from banks – who charge UK consumers £3.2 billion per year for exceeding overdraft limits!
- German publishers have been better than anyone else in Europe in terms of network migration. Burda was a founder of Tomorrows World Group (dating, holiday booking, car sales etc): von Holtzbrinck is the owner of Parship, the leader in the dating market.
- Dating is great, and very special in Germany (high levels of profiling, security and psychological testing). There are 4000 services in Europe, and they are expected to consolidate by 75 % in the next 5 years.
- Compare Parship and ElitePartner (Tomorrow Focus Group), the German market leaders in dating. Parship has 56 million EUR in revenue, after 10 years and 11 million sophisticated German singles as members. Tomorrow Focus claims that it is close to Parship in size, which means that some 45% of its total revenues are dating. Total revenues for Tomorrow Focus are 120 million EUR, forecast to rise to 250 m in 2015. Ebitda is currently 12million EUR, rising to 30-40 million in 2015. Scout24 Group is smaller than either in these sectors.
- DACH really is now an expression of a marketplace which makes sense to these players.
- Spotify now has 750 000 users. Like LoveFilm, this is an increasingly cloud-based business, delivering services licence to every and all devices that the users want to play them upon. It say that “it does not compete with downloads – it just grows the market”. (But perhaps one day they will be the market!)
- Softonic “claims to be the largest neutral marketplace for apps software”. It has 130 000 reviewed programs and has done 1 billion downloads this year. It has 80 million unique users per month, is growing at 65 % pa and has operating margins of 50%.
- Only 5% of apps are used within 20 days of download.
- There are 1 billion internet users and 4 billion mobile phone users – guess where the information market is going?
- Amiando was bought by Xing: the future of B2B social network players is going to be events management.
- The sort of classified services we expect on our mobile platforms: take a photo of a car registration plate – and see if that car is for sale of if there are some available like it. Same for Homes? (Probably won’t work so well with partners!)
- 3D will be slow – but augmented reality will be everywhere next year.
- Travel sites – European commission on air tickets is 5% average – on accommodation it is 15-20 %: so we have less Expedias and more hotel booking agencies.
- Bigpoint leads the games arena: 160 million registered players, 25 languages, 1 million concurrent active users, 60 games at any one time, 250 000 new registrations per day, 10% of users create 80% of revenues.
- Growth is in non-specialist area – the Zynga/Playfish market where Bigpoint have their Rama series.
- GetJar’s claim to be the world’s largest Open app store (yes, you can use Flash!) backed by $100 million revenues per month. Company and founder moved from Lithuania to Silicon Valley (who says we cannot do “big” in Europe?). App developers pay no fees for being in the store, and users can use any billing systems. Angry Birds was the fastest ever app launch!
Take away a percentage for hyperbole, and a bit more for overselling, and you will still find that Marco is right: these are buoyant markets in Europe, showing aggressive growth and interesting investment possibilities. With some distinguished exceptions, they are not related to European publishing or broadcasting, and their growth cycles are not limited by print or broadcast relationships. Something new happened in the middle of the last decade and now it is happening again. Noah and its conference do us all a service by getting the vital essence of these changes onto a stage.
Dec
13
I wish I had done that …
Filed Under Blog, eBook, Education, Industry Analysis, internet, Publishing, Reed Elsevier, Search, STM, Thomson, Uncategorized, Workflow | Leave a Comment
Now , strategy is simple , execution is the real difficulty . Having written strategy for my friends in the industry for the past 25 years , I know the truth of that . And if we are going to deal in truth for a change , I was a dab hand at strategy as a digital law publisher , but found turning those elegant bullet points into service values and USPs that people would pay for a far more difficult game .
So here is a chance to salute a master this week , and at the same time acknowledge another truth : to be a maestro you need an orchestra , and it is very difficult to execute anything in a place which is not receptive to change . So it is a good job that Dr Timo Hannay works at Macmillan , where they have produced a management that welcomes change , and a trading atmosphere that concentrates on the essentials while coping with customers forever on the move and shifting their priorities . The strength of this mix is shown in last weeks announcement of the long-awaited Digital Science Ltd , which solves two problems in one : ” How does Macmillan/Nature punch above its weight in a market of larger players like Elsevier, Wiley and Springer ? ” and ” How do we find a suitable role for our chief technology change agent and strategy inventor given that his Nature inventions must now be given time to shake down and mature ? ”
In another age that second question would have been disallowed . At length we are beginning to realize in the industry formerly known as publishing , that talent is scarce and must be nurtured . And the first qusetion would have been answered by lateral growth : publish more things in more subjects . Fortunatly , the networked publishing world widens the options , and a content provider can now relocate himself to another place in the value chain and compete with his more traditionally minded competitors in a wholly different way . Digital Science seems to me to be a prime example of this strategy on the move . There are limits to how much can be cloned under the Nature brand . This is already a broad-based journal publishing brand now erupting into education and into collateral ebook developments . The time of rapid service experimentation is over , and the bits that work identified and in process of being iterated ( see Nature Networks and its recent announcements ). There is clearly recognition that growth from this base is ongoing but structurally finite : any ordinary publisher at this point would make an expensive acquisition , fire half of the new staff and spend five years cutting costs while finding out which things worked and scrapping the rest .
Not the Macmillan way , at present . The option taken has been to re-concentrate on the working processes of the researcher . Not ” how can we sell him more articles ? ” but ” how can we help him to organize himself more productively , make better decisions over the content he uses from all sources , and , possibly , stay within ethical and academic guidelines for what constitutes good research ? ” In other words , Digital Science is an elegant workflow play in the making .
This sounds like a delightfully easy strategy piece to write : I may have written it myself several times in the past few years . Move up the value chain to a point in the workflow where you can provide process tools and support . Then develop said tools and become the integrated point of analysis for all content – your own , third party , and user-derived . Here you get growth , greater knowledge of changing customer behaviours and a locked-in market that finds it hard to leave the bar once it has bought the first drink .
But the power lies in the execution , not in the strategy . So Timo and his colleagues have beaten the bushes for tools and environments that users /researchers really respond to , and coupled them up as acquisitions to create not a 1+1=1.5 scenario , but instead a 1=1=1=4 configuration . There is chemistry in everything in science , so SureChem , a specialized text mining application ( and also a patents search engine ) was a natural building block . Macmillan bought it last year for Digital Science . Then add an equity stake in BioData Ltd , a lab management outfit designed to be a network-based answer that avoids the complexities of an Oracle enterprize solution . Bring to the boil with Symplectic , , a toolset to improve researcher productivity by tracking the writing and recording of findings to publication .As institutional repositories continue to grow , and academics and their administrators need to track versioning , control deposits and manage bibliometrics for research assessment and other exercises , this becomes more and more central .
All of this sounds like a Life Sciences concentration , and of course that would reflect Macmillan’s other interests as well as one of the fastest growth points in the sector . Symplectic will link to grants applications and proposal development , which completes another wing of the workflow . No doubt ( an old hobby horse of mine ) they will also look at the electronic lab manual as a point of synthesis for individual researchers , as well as a way of demonstarting due diligence and regulatory compliance .
And of course , it is not that these attributes do not exist elsewhere . Thomson Reuters have a strong holding of productivity tools for writing , linked to Web of Science . Elsevier have strength of a different kind in science search and in abstracting and indexing services . What Digital Science appears to want to do is integrate its attributes on the research workbench and then go and get the rest of the requirements and integrate them as well . This strategy has taken a year to execute and now ( December 7 ) announce . It represents a new growth point and a pointer to where , after content , the competitive pressures will be felt . Really , I wish I had done that …
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