Aug
5
The Future is Already Past
Filed Under B2B, Big Data, Blog, data analytics, eLearning, Industry Analysis, internet, mobile content, online advertising, Publishing, Uncategorized, Workflow | Leave a Comment
Is there a better instance of “speed of change” than that just when you are instancing something as a prime example of future change, you next read of it as history? We keep reminding ourselves that change is running at faster rates than we imagined, or than we experienced in childhood or at other times. My usual counter to this has been to point out how slowly things happen. Between announcement and implementation whole decades seem to yawn, so that when the signalled change does take place, we experience something like dejas vu. Yet I do share the “speed of change” experience myself, and last week, just as I was writing about the automation of aspects of building design and construction, I started to tell a friend, standing on my soapbox as a former farming person, about the developments one could forecast in agriculture. “And so”, I recall ending my peroration,” it is plain to see that the tractor is a robot waiting to happen…”
Well, he was kind enough to wait an hour or so before sending me the article about research at John Deere, and while looking at that I came across Jaybridge Robotics (www.jaybridge.com/news) and their work with Kinze to create Kinze Autonomy, the driverless tractor. This development is capable of performing a complete harvesting workflow in a geo-location-based systems environment which was launched in Iowa on July 29th. My friend kindly wrote “Your prediction was History – but remind me why I needed to know…” And there lies the problem: we need to know how our users are likely to adapt to change at the same time that they make that decision. In an information market where corporate planning times have diminished from a standard five years when I entered work, to a budget plus a forecast it is becoming peculiarly hard to negotiate the hair-pin bends of market change while keeping an eye on the horizon. I even have one colleague who does two six month budgets a year and still complains how hard it is to cope with changing circumstances.
Last Friday, Sonoma issued their interim results. How often have you read a media company boss like Harri-Pekka Kaukonen, President and CEO, say things like this:
“Learning’s solid performance continued in the second quarter whereas
structural changes accelerated in consumer media.
Advertising markets in Sanoma’s main operating countries continued to be
depressed. The likelihood of clearly improving market conditions in the second
half of the year is estimated to be low. In addition, circulation sales
continue to be under pressure, impacting our sales and profitability”
For the past five years we could have produced automated statements to this effect for every media player throughout Europe and North America. And while I am sure that the wise folk at Sanoma have new strategies to roll out in due course, I find it deeply disturbing that much of the consumer print media marketplace seems to have been sleepwalking for the last five years, and for the five years before that when structural change began. So do we really have a ten year reaction time to fundamental change? Lets move forward quickly to James Dolan, CEO of Cablevision, the fifth largest cable player in the US, as quoted this morning by the Wall Street Journal (http://onlinr.wsj.com: “The Future of Cable might not include TV”). Now here is someone who can imagine the impact of structural change when he senses it. In the wars between programme makers, internet distributors and video channels like Netflix he seems determined to be prepared, even if he is not a television player in the future. Allocating capital expenditures of $1.1 billion last year to upgrading his network, he is determined to work as a broadband distributor, offering higher speeds, greater outdoor wifi access and cloud-based storage allowing users the ability to record up to ten items at the same time. He notes that his kids (he has six boys from 6 to 26) use Netflix on Cablevision Broadband. One of his investors remarks” Jim has a multi-generational view, a longer term view”. Some people see change, and are able to think about the unthinkable.
Sometimes the best way to envision the future is to watch other people betting on it. This is why the start-up markets are so interesting, to me at least, and why watching the drift of interest in venture capital-backed plays can be so useful. I have to believe that setting up VC-style growth greenhouses makes sense (as Macmillan Education and Science, and a number of others have grasped). I noted that some now believe that the tech development impetus in Europe has moved from London to Berlin (http://newsle.com/article/0/86896557/), but where it is does not really matter. We all have to go there and see what is happening. In the UK there is a traditional gap between university science park developments and tech development zones like London’s Shoreditch, so I was pleased to see Elsevier sponsoring the Global University Venturing Summit (http://www.globaluniversityventuring.com/pages/global-university-venturing-summit-brussels-oct-16th.html) which takes place in October this year. If you want to smell the future, get into meetings like this, stop thinking about what has changed and start thinking about what will.
Jul
30
Revit: BIM brings it all Together
Filed Under B2B, Big Data, Blog, data analytics, Industry Analysis, internet, Publishing, Search, semantic web, social media, Uncategorized, Workflow | 1 Comment
It was at the hog roast on Saturday afternoon, and I had just bitten appreciably into wonderful Berkshire Tamworth and crackling (a superb achievement in itself – an anthem to a great pig). The father of my hostess said “With BIM in its present state, I as a small architectural office in a country town can work on far larger projects: in fact we are just opening a virtual office in the West End of London”. In an information industry which perpetually recites the mantra about the integration of software with content as data to create solutions it is important to have a reminder every now and then that this is for real and drives men’s lives. The conversation drove me back to see what the industry leaders were doing, to see how Autodesk had defended its AutoCAD territory with Revit, and to see whether there are now any appreciable results worth measuring. And then to think about the changes of the past five years in the context of those years having embraced the worst construction industry downturn in the last century. If the technology can scale in these conditions then it can scale anywhere at any time.
In January this year a McGraw-Hill report indicated that BIM usage had grown from 17% of the US construction market to 70% in 2012. And what are the drivers here? Simply that it has become a requirement for many of those commissioning major building projects that not only does the construction process need an operational model, but that owners need to inherit at completion the final data plot, with the consequent ability to backtrack, find what decisions were made and why and consider them in light of further development or maintenance requirements. Another driver was Green Buildings: how could anyone be sure of the green decisions made unless they were fully documented and attached to the plan? According to Revit, still firmly in place as market leader, there are four distinguishing areas that make the processes involved in the unified content solution flow (architectural design: MEP – mechanical, electrical, plumbing: structural engineering and construction) work at higher levels of efficiency:
* Parametric components – dropping in “intelligent” building design components to increase accuracy
* Bidirectional associativity – all design changes are reflected automatically throughout the model
* Worksharing – all players in the workflow can have access at the same time
* Construction modelling – getting better insight into constructability
It seems to me that there are important lessons here for those of us who talk airily about “workflow and process – and the integration of content into it”. For a start, things can change almost overnight – five years is a very short time. Secondly, the McGraw-Hill survey shows consistent gains in terms of margins for BIM procedures users over their more traditional colleagues. Then, these developments will change the shape of the industries to which they are applied, leading to cross-industry collaboration in some sectors, and cost effective outsourcing in others. So for the vendor of data and content, the nature of the customer can be expected to change. It may also be a factor that recession accelerates change, forcing those who must remain competitive to do so earlier than they might have done in markets where work was easier to get.
Undoubtedly too the three change pressures that have afflicted all industries play a lead role here. All the partners in this workflow model are anxious for increased productivity – and that is probably expressed here by the loss of clerical roles. Everyone must have better decision-making – and that is expressed here by an ability to try the options and select the best. And very powerfully this workflow speaks to the need for compliance with standards, local and national regulation, industry benchmarks and other requirements. It is also noteworthy that this is a “long” workflow, stretching from project conception to the completed building, and then living on as a building management tool. Five years ago we tended to speak in B2B about single process workflow – helping the user to do better procurement, for example. Here we are talking in much more comprehensive terms – and if it were necessary to credit check suppliers then that would be modularized in the process, not left outside of it.
The implications of all of this are huge for formerly passive data suppliers to particular industry functions A glance at McGraw-Hill Construction and Reed Construction illustrates some of the issues. McGraw-Hill got away to a fast start with its Construction Network, really aimed at the Bechtel-Haliburton end of the industry, and at global markets. Reed Construction’s data holdings were aimed at costing and leads, and much of their workflow activity, like the recently launched cūbus + Demand View (29 July 2013) (http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/7/prweb10950816.htm). This is the smartest development so far in comparative leads intelligence, and makes McGraw’s Dodge Network express look like a messaging service. The UK government is ready to roll (2011 pronouncement: “The Government Construction Strategy was published by the Cabinet office on 31 May 2011. The report announced the Governments intention to require: collaborative 3D BIM (with all project and asset information, documentation and data being electronic) on its projects by 2016.” But while Revit and its lesser rivals are obvious in the market place, neither UBM or EMAP, who hold most of the data resources, seem hot to trot. In fact Barbour, once a market leader, makes no mention that I can find of BIM. This then raises the open question: will the big players in content and data here buy into the software business, or partner with Revit. And do the smaller ones get bought by the software players – or simply get by-passed . The implications of workflow, as demonstrated in this seminal marketplace, get sharper in focus every day.
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