Everytime I settle down to write this piece Unintended Events intervene. As a result a piece intended for late August is being typed in hospital in mid-September – and I am even being evicted from the safety of this refuge tomorrow. So, enough about explaining how the title got on this piece.

But the Light in question is still bright in my eyes, and it derived from reading the August 17 Wired article by Chris Anderson and Michael Wolff (“The Web is dead, Long Live the Internet”) (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/all/1) at the same time as Technology Review’s article about the crisis facing the porn industry (http://www.technology review.com/web/26074/). I have a great admiration for Mr Anderson, since I think his finger is close to the pulse on most things. And his argument now is compelling, though perhaps its factual base is less secure than we think. He is saying that Web usage on the internet is now dwarfed by peer-to-peer file sharing and video downloads, that despite growing use of the Web (if it is in fact growing), its shrinkage as a proportion of internet usage is the trend to watch, and both he and Wolff are arguing for a world where apps rule, and users are happier with pre-prepared service environments a la Jobs and Zuckerberg, even if, with greater effort, they could construct the same effect for themselves – for free.

Meanwhile, we must note with sadness the passing of a porn industry whose works are now being widely pirated, where peer-to-peer is as great a danger as it was to the music industry a decade ago, and where streaming video now ranks sites like PornHub and Xvideo in the top 60 sites on the Web. Even though these tubes are free video environments that undermine the rest of the industry while claiming to be dealing in “user-generated” (aka “liberated”) content.  And what a joy it is to report porn industry associations pleading for better intellectual property protection, and bemoaning the lack of effective industry statistics.

So what exercises me about all of this? Well, in the first place I used to advise clients in the 90s, when we had less experience of anything, that the porn players were wonderful role models for viral marketing, copy protection, the ability to keep pricing and sales perpetually refreshed, and mapping behaviour and purchasing patterns. And maybe they were, but the problems of the Web still caught up with them. Yet some of my best friends are only, even now, arriving at the Web and trying to re-create themselves as Web 2.0 orientated business and professional information environments. How am I going to break the news that the Web is dead, and even the porno rats cannot make a living?

The clues come in the last few lines. The Web may be dead as an info/entertainment resource, but as a community it probably has a long life, and there is ecommerce to be done within that community. We do need to revert to stricter definitions of the Web and the Internet, and more clearly see the former sitting on top of the latter, and not allow them to elide in common parlance (I plead guilty as charged). And we must acknowledge that the emerging world of active information solutions is an Internet activity, not a Web-based one, just as the emerging world of apps seems to belong more in mobile networks, not the Web. Yes, the Web will help us sell all these things, but they are not rooted there. The major workflow projects now afoot which will wholly transform B2B, and professional information, into services and solutions in the next five years are creatures of the Intranet and the Internet. They may draw content in part from Web discovery, but the Dark of private subscription contract services in the non-entertainment sectors already outweighs the commoditized content of the Open Web, even if it uses that material and adds private value to it.

What we are not getting our heads around is the relationship of the mobile network, mostly owned and controlled by third parties, and the Internet. It is a real issue, and one that must be tackled before access and tariff barriers become the real issues. And the Web will go on operating much as it does today for a very long time. A bit like the world of print. Amongst all of this we are slowly learning that not every tool can be used for everything. The Web is 18: by the time it comes of age as a medium we may know much more precisely what it is (not) for.

A final note. To the kind reader who asked whether I had given upwriting for August, the answer is clearly “No”. Having disposed of the Search economy, Google, and the Web in my last two posts, I feel entitled to a productivity award. And a reminder of Chris Anderson (who is, I think, actually an Englishman raised in North America). I had the pleasure of speaking just before him at the Google Unbound conference some years ago. As he replaced me at the podium, he remarked in a kindly manner “If I had that accent people here would think me 15% more intelligent than I am.”  My response – “does that mean that without it I would be 15% less intelligent than I appear?” – was mercifully drowned by the reaction to his remark. But I still regret saying it.

« go back